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Supercell / Tornado Threat Along Retreating Warm Front Southeast SD Through Southern MN Sep 21

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to weaken across northern IL through Lower MI with some regeneration of storms at the southwestern flank near the Davenport area, reenforcing an outflow boundary extending northwest through eastern IA to southwest MN. This OFB intersects with a retreating warm front extending E-W across extreme southern...

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Severe Weather Returns to Parts of the Central/Southern Great Plains as the Fall Season Ramps Up Sep 15

Despite the main core of the Polar Front Jet Stream still residing well north of Canada, a high-amplitude trough will traverse the central/northern Great Plains today, bringing with it modest but sufficient upper-level flow for organized severe storms in the warm sector. The strongest upper-level dynamics will remain from eastern NE north with this...

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Active Severe Weather Pattern Today and Tomorrow from Central Plains to Great Lakes Region Sep 9

Multiple zones of severe weather will unfold this afternoon/evening across the central U.S. as a potent positively-tilted trough amplifies from the northern Great Plains to the Great Lakes Region by tomorrow (Saturday). Three main zones of severe weather Friday afternoon/evening include: 1. along outflow boundary ahead of cold front from southeast...

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Significant Severe Weather in the Northeast Later Today, Including Isolated Tornadoes Aug 16

Substantial moisture return is underway in the Northeast U.S. warm sector today ahead of a potent upper-level storm system that produced a long-track tornadic supercell yesterday causing damage to the northwest of Indianapolis. Dew points in the low to mid 70s are commonplace to the south of a retreating warm front that was just north of NYC to Cape...

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Severe Weather Returns to the Northeast U.S. This Saturday Aug 6

As has often been the case this midsummer, a potent upper-level trough will dominate the Northeast U.S. this Saturday, with severe storms likely along a cold front that will pass through this afternoon. Dew points this morning were already in the upper 60s and even low-to-mid 70s from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic region, with substantial...

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Widespread Damaging Wind Event Likely Through Tonight Across Parts of the Southern Plains Jul 28

All of western KS has been included in a high (4/5) threat for damaging straight-line winds especially late afternoon and overnight. Supercells with isolated tornadoes will also be possible initially (late afternoon) before storms congeal into a squall line, especially across portions of northeast CO into extreme western KS (moderate, 3/5 threat...

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More Severe Weather This Afternoon/Overnight Across Parts of the Great Lakes Region Jul 24

A compact but potent shortwave trough will pass through the Great Lakes Region today from the Upper Midwest, ramping up severe weather across parts of Lower Michigan through southern WI, northern IL possibly through northern MO. Late this morning a cold front was moving slowly through western WI and will be focus for redevelopment of strong-to-severe...

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Severe Threat Ramping up Later Today Along "Ring of Fire" Across Upper Midwest, Parts of New England! Jul 23

The northeastern Great Plains through Upper Midwest will be the most active this Saturday afternoon/evening for severe weather once again, this time focused across central MN into western WI. The models are showing multiple rounds of storms today likely with a widespread damaging wind-producing complex organizing this evening and blasting through...

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Massive Squall Line Blasting Through the Great Lakes Region! Jul 21

A massive squall line / derecho extends from southern Ontario / eastern Lake Superior through northern Lake Michigan into central Wisconsin as of 9:30 am CDT/10:30 am EDT. This squall line will come ashore any minute in extreme northwest Lower Michigan with special marine warnings in place and likely severe thunderstorm warnings to come. Currently...

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Significant Severe Weather Possible This Evening Across Parts of Northern High Plains! Jul 10

A massive upper-level trough centered over the Northwest U.S. will finally begin to eject across the northern Great Plains warm sector by late afternoon/evening, with significant severe weather possible ahead of the trough in the red circled area below. The most likely area for supercells with tornadoes and very large hail will be after 5-6 pm across...

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