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Three areas of relatively enhanced severe weather threat will likely materialize this Saturday late afternoon and evening:
Supercell and even low tornado threat along warm front and ahead of compact trough across eastern NY, extreme eastern PA through southern NJ, possibly including NYC depending on how far north the warm front retreats...
Significant severe weather likely across western SD, extreme eastern WY, possibly into northwest NE by late afternoon/evening today.
The greatest tornado threat will materialize after 3 or 4 pm CDT just east of the Black Hills, SD likely along the I-90 corridor through evening. Even a strong tornado or two will be possible given CAPE values in excess...read more
A regionally significant severe weather event appears likely this afternoon and evening (Friday, July 1, 2016) across parts of the Northeast U.S., including the threat for isolated tornadoes. The highest supercell and tornado threat (2/5) will be over northeast PA, northwest NJ, through Upstate NY where the greatest instability and low-level wind...read more
A significant severe weather event is expected Wednesday late afternoon/evening across northern Illinois, extreme eastern Iowa, northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, southern WI, and possibly extreme southern Lower Michigan… The main threats will be tornadoes and very large hail with supercells through evening, transitioning to a widespread damaging...read more
A widespread significant hail event is likely Monday afternoon/evening for most of the central and northern High Plains from eastern Colorado through central Montana, with isolated tornadoes possible with the strongest supercells. A longitudinally substantial lead wave will eject across the High Plains by peak heating, with deep-layer wind shear...read more
A powerful upper-level trough continues to spin over the Pacific Northwest, with a strong Polar Front Jet Stream stretching from the North Pacific through the Canadian Prairies. This semi-permanent trough will bring multiple days of severe weather for parts of the northern High Plains and possibly into the Canada Prairies through the weekend. Meanwhile...read more
A geographically widespread, but low-end severe weather event appears likely this afternoon and evening across the eastern half of the Ohio River Valley through the central/southern Appalachians to as far northeast as central VA. Overall, relatively weak low-level wind fields and modest lapse rates will mitigate a much more substantial severe weather...read more
The severe weather season for the East Coast will likely start off with a bang this Sunday, especially across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Region. A double-barreled upper level trough will amplify over the eastern U.S. this weekend, with the lead vorticity maximum forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes Region by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of this trough...read more
The greatest tornado (moderate, 3/5) and large hail (high, 4/5) will be over southwest KS, extreme northwest OK into the northeast TX Panhandle, with forecast soundings showing potential for even strong tornadoes with locally enhanced wind shear along and north of boundary that will be near the KS/OK border. A jet streak will impinge on the warm...read more
Supercells producing very large hail will be the main issue for the severe weather event today, especially from southwest Oklahoma SSW through western Texas to as far south as the Big Bend Region. With forecast CAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg along and south of the outflow boundary forecast to reside over NW TX into SW OK by peak heating, and more...read more
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