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Greatest Severe Weather Threat for Western KS, North-Central MT by Late Afternoon/Evening! May 21

Here are the updated tornado and large hail threat maps for this afternoon and evening (Saturday, May 21, 2016), showing two primary areas of enhanced severe weather: (1) north-central Montana near the Fort Peck Lake area and (2) extreme western KS from near Goodland down through Garden City, KS area. Supercells producing large hail will be likely...

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Extended Period of Significant Severe Weather Likely for the Central/Southern Great Plains! May 20

Forecast models are showing potentially over a week straight of severe weather across portions of the southern/central Great Plains from this weekend through at least the end of the week, with tornado and very large hail potential every single day somewhere in the semi-permanent warm sector. Here are detailed outlooks for the first three days (Saturday...

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Severe Weather Threat Today Is Focused Across Deep South Texas May 19

A very slow moving cold front re-enforced by morning storms will become nearly stationary today across deep South Texas from just south of Laredo through north of Corpus Christi, and will be the focus of a severe weather and flash flooding threat there through this evening. Elevated strong to severe storms are already propagating along and just north...

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Tornado and Hail Threat Return to the Southern High Plains! May 15

Forecast models have come into agreement on the likelihood for significant severe weather across the northern TX/OK Panhandle region on Monday afternoon/evening, possibly into extreme southwestern KS depending on the northward push of the warm front. A compact but potent jet streak will pass over the TX/OK Panhandles right at peak heating, with supercells...

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Severe Weather Returns to the Plains This Weekend, Including Threat for Hail and Tornadoes May 6

An elongated, SW-to-NE oriented cut-off low will move slowly across the southern Rocky Mountain Region through the weekend, with rapid northward moisture transport across the Great Plains ahead of this storm system. A vast majority of the strongest upper-level winds (> 100 kts at 300 mb) are confined to the southern side of this cut-off low, with...

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Large Hail Possible by Late Afternoon/Evening for Parts of Eastern Carolinas! May 3

Based on latest high-resolution forecast model trends, we've decided to add a low (2/5) severe hail threat category for parts of the SC/NC Carolina Piedmont region east of the Appalachian Mountains for this late afternoon and evening. Skies have cleared behind initial storms currently moving off the NC Outer Banks, with temperatures in the low-to...

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Low-End Severe Weather Possible by Late Afternoon in Southern IA/Northern MO Apr 27

A strong, vertically stacked and negatively tilted upper-level storm system with 992 mb surface low is spinning over eastern Nebraska this afternoon, with a sharp warm front extending east across extreme southern IA and then southeast into northeast MO. Skies are beginning to clear in southwest IA/northwest MO with an arc of low-topped towering cumulus...

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Upgraded Tornado Threat Across Parts of Western OK and KS! Apr 26

The tornado threat has been upgraded to the high (4/5) category in two locations within the broader risk area: 1. Near I-70 corridor in vicinity of outflow boundary around 4-7 pm with enhanced low level shear, and 2. western OK into southern KS along dry line especially after 6-7 pm when low-level wind shear increases. The only factor preventing...

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Severe Weather/Tornado Threat Upgraded for Sunday Evening Across N OK/S KS Apr 22

Based on recent trends in forecast model guidance, I've decided to upgrade the tornado threat on Sunday late afternoon/evening to a 3/5. Previously, it looked like the moisture return would not yet be sufficient by Sunday east of the dry line for significant severe weather with this lead upper-level shortwave, but now I think that the cap will easily...

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Big Severe Weather Likely next Week in the Southern Great Plains! Apr 21

An extended period of severe weather appears likely next week across the southern Great Plains and other parts of the central/southern U.S., starting as early as Sunday afternoon/evening from eastern SD through western OK. A major pattern shift is underway from the stagnant omega block regime we have been experiencing for several days, with a large...

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